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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Fighters of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), walk together near Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Facilitating the New SDF Agreement Is Key to Stabilizing Syria
The Kurdish-led group has reached important understandings with the new leadership in Damascus, but finalizing and implementing them while resolving points of contention will require further help from the United States and its partners.
Apr 2, 2025
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  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
A rebel fighter belonging to the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gestures while riding a vehicle near Aleppo in November 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The New Syrian Government’s Fight Against the Islamic State, Hezbollah, and Captagon
An in-depth look at how the new rulers tackled these counterterrorism issues in Idlib province for years prior to Assad’s fall, and what steps they are taking at the national level today.
March 2025
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Screenshot from MarineTraffic shows tracks of the Marina between Cyprus and Syria on March 28, 2025.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah-Linked LPG Tanker Sails to East Mediterranean
Past ties between the Marina and the Lebanese terrorist group, along with the ship’s deceptive practices at sea, merit U.S. scrutiny.
Mar 28, 2025
◆
  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Flags of Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Turkey on display in Riyadh
Articles & Testimony
Lessons from the Middle East’s Unfinished War
Definitive conclusions about the post-October 7 environment remain elusive, but it is not too early to draw lessons and consider the problems and opportunities that may arise from the recent upheaval in 2025.
Mar 25, 2025
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  • Michael Singh
Map of nothern Israel and Israel's borders with Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Source: Wikimedia Commons
Brief Analysis
Avoiding an Israel-Syria Showdown (Part 2): An Opening for New Negotiations
Direct Israeli dialogue with Syria’s transitional government could produce a new framework for bilateral relations—one that includes effectively ending the perpetual state of belligerency, accepting Israel’s special relationship with the Druze, agreeing on spheres of coordination throughout the south, and cooperating against Iran and Hezbollah’s comeback attempts in Syria and Lebanon.
Mar 21, 2025
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  • Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
Avoiding an Israel-Syria Showdown (Part 1): The Risks of “Occupation”
Israel’s cross-border incursion is understandable but may have gone too far, raising the need for U.S. intercession on merging Syria’s disparate forces, easing sanctions, deconflicting with Turkey, and other urgent stabilization tasks.
Mar 20, 2025
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  • David Schenker
The Syria Breakdown Series Title Card
Video
Articles & Testimony
Hope for al-Hol? The Syria Breakdown, Episode Six
Does Syria's transition away from Assad regime tyranny offer hope for closing detention camps, which have been home to thousands of internally displaced persons and Islamic State supporters?
Mar 13, 2025
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  • Devorah Margolin
◆ The Syria Breakdown
Syria's interim leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, addresses soldiers loyal to the new regime - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Enough with the Hand-Wringing: Al-Sharaa Is Better Than Assad
Despite well-founded worries about the rise of an Islamist government in Syria, the new rulers cannot be any worse than the previous regime—especially now that they are largely disarmed and disinclined to partner with U.S. adversaries like Iran and Russia.
Mar 11, 2025
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  • David Schenker
A Syrian man points at bullet holes in a window of a hospital in Jableh town, 25 km south of Latakia, following a spate of violence between Syrian security forces and insurgents loyal to deposed president Bashar al-Assad - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Transitional Honeymoon Is Over After Massacres and Disinformation
Amid mounting civilian deaths and rampant disinformation, the conduct of Syria’s fact-finding committee will either make or break the new government’s legitimacy and the prospects for a stable transition.
Mar 10, 2025
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Uli al-Baas cover 1
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Uli al-Baas (Part 2): Key Analytic Findings
Uli al-Baas certainly looks and feels like an Iran-supported militia info-ops platform, designed to give the impression (possibly accurate) that a pantheon of armed groups are activating to fight Israel and the new Syrian government.
Mar 9, 2025
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  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Sary Mumayiz
◆ Militia Spotlight
Uli al-Baas-Syria
Maps & Graphics
Uli al-Baas (Part 1): A New Islamic Resistance Front in Syria?
A newly formed "resistance" group emerged online in January, vowing to confront Israel's presence and Syria’s interim president.
Mar 9, 2025
◆
  • Sary Mumayiz
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Syrian civilians celebrate the fall of the Assad regime in downtown Damascus in December 2024 - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Inside the New Syria: The First Three Months
Activists and experts from Syria, Europe, and Washington share on-the-ground insights about how the post-Assad transition is going and where local grievances might erupt into bigger problems.
Mar 7, 2025
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Gregory Waters
  • Sawsan Abou Zainedin
  • Ferhad Ahma
  • Rahaf Aldoughli
A Russian crude oil tanker transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, in 2024 - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Quest for Oil May Include Russian Shipments
As the new government looks for quick answers to its emergency energy needs, it may turn to sanctioned Russian ship operators and other illicit actors.
Mar 5, 2025
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  • Noam Raydan
Video
Articles & Testimony
Bridging the Gap: Turkey Between East and West
An expert testifies on Turkey’s new position in Syria and shifting power relations with Russia, explaining how Washington can use both to help resolve the Ukraine war and shift U.S. strategic investments toward the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 5, 2025
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Map of Syria, sanctions "tape," new Syrian flag, Bashar al-Assad, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Muhammad al-Jolani)
In-Depth Reports
Navigating the Syria Sanctions Conundrum
Washington should act quickly to facilitate transactions for key sectors such as electricity, food, and rubble removal, lest public discontent lead to widespread protests and possibly government collapse.
Mar 5, 2025
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Syria's Minister of Foreign Affairs Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani speaks during a meeting with Syrian diaspora after the International Conference on Syria in Paris on February 13, 2025 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Post-Paris Steps in Syria Could Be Decisive
With the clock ticking on the post-Assad honeymoon period, Washington still has time to acknowledge the realities on the ground by providing crucial U.S. know-how and strategic support to the international aid, recovery, and counterterrorism missions.
Feb 28, 2025
◆
  • Devorah Margolin
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Syrian men attempt to repair electrical lines damaged by forces loyal to the Assad regime in 2013 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Does Syria’s Electricity Crisis Have an Israeli Solution?
Whether authorities call it “Egyptian gas” or “Jordanian gas,” the simple fact is that Israeli offshore supplies could help with Syria’s major power shortage if the necessary arrangements are ironed out.
Feb 24, 2025
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Demonstrators fly a mixture of Turkish flages featuring the image of the Republic of Turkey's founder, Kemal Mustafa Ataturk, and banners depicting Kurdish militia leader Abdullah Ocalan - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 2): Implications for Turkish and U.S. Policy
If Ankara seals the deal and preempts potential spoilers, the results could prove historic for Turkish politics, Erdogan’s legacy, joint counterterrorism efforts, and wider U.S. regional interests.
Feb 21, 2025
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Karayilan, acting military commander of the PKK, speaks during an interview with Reuters at the Qandil mountains in Sulaimaniya in 2013, in front of a portrait of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 1): Kurdish Actors and Interests
Although past peace efforts have fallen apart due to diplomatic stumbles and Kurdish opposition, the situation on the ground in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey has changed dramatically enough to warrant optimism about Ankara’s current talks.
Feb 21, 2025
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with Turkey's president Erdogan in Ankara in 2025 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
A New Age for Turkish Relations with Syria
Ankara and Washington should offer incentives to the new leadership in Damascus to encourage an inclusive governance process and make Syria work.
Feb 20, 2025
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Soner Cagaptay

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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